Menyusun tulisan mengenai perlunya kehati-hatian dalam dunia keuangan untuk saya mengandung rasa takut. Sebagai orang yang pernah menjadi pelaku dari otorita moneter dan pengawasan perbankan posisi saya, paling sedikit menurut berbagai kalangan, sangat lemah untuk bicara mengenai topik tersebut. Sebagai implikasinya ada rasa takut bahwa peringatan yang dikemukakan di sini tidak akan diperhatikan. Tetapi saya lebih takut melihat Dengan resiko tersebut saya memenuhi undangan editor Trust untuk menulis kolom membahas perlunya kehati-hatian bagi pelaku sektor keuangan, termasuk otorita pengawasannya yang terkait dengan permasalahan obligasi perusahaan atau corporate bonds, terutama dengan telah adanya kasus gagal bayar obligasi korporasi sebesar hampir Rp 4 T baru-baru ini.
Mungkin untuk sementara orang masalah ini dianggap enteng dan karena itu tidak atau belum perlu diperhatikan. Memang benar bahwa obligasi sebagai intrumen mobilisasi dana bagi korporasi di Indonesia belum terlalu popular. Seperti negara berkembang laian pembiayaan kegiatan korporasi di Indonesia masih sangat didominir perbankan. Pembiayaan kegiatan korporasi melalui obligasi di Indonesia antara 1990-1999 baik sebagai persentasi terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) maupun sebagai persentasi dari pembiayaan eksternal bagi korporasi hanya sekitar dua persen saja.
Dewasa ini kondisi perbankan Indonesia belum pulih, masih mengalami penderitaan sebagai dampak dari krisis yang telah berjalan beberapa tahun. Indonesia masih mengalami masalah belum pulihnya penyediaan kredit perbankan bagi korporasi. Dalam aspek ini pembiayaan melalui obligasi korporasi tentunya merupakan alternatif yang masih terbuka.
II
Tetapi mengapa harus diwaspadai? Justru karena jumlahnya belum terlalu besar, mumpung belum terlambat perlu dicermati apa saja aspek-aspek yang perlu diwaspadai dari penggunaaan instrumen ini sebagai sumber pembiayaan korporasi. Mumpung masih belum besar, kalau ada yang tidak beres sebaiknya dibenahi terlebih dahulu, agar tidak terjadi gejolak pada pasar instrumen pembiayaan ini dan nantinya pasar obligasi berkembang secara sehat menjadi alternatif pembiayaan bagi korporasi.
Obligasi korporasi yang sebelum krisis masih sangat kecil jumlahnya nampak sedikit demi sedikit menjadi bertambah besar. Menurut data yang tersedia, rata-rata per tahun penerbitan obligasi korporasi di Indonesia sejak 1997 tidak mencapai Rp.3 T, kecuali tahun 1998. Akan tetapi pada tahun 2002 terjadi peningkatan penerbitan obligasi korporasi menjadi Rp 6,44 T. Untuk tahun ini, dalam semester pertama saja jumlah obligasi korporasi telah mencapai Rp 13,08 T, sedangkan untuk seluruh tahun diperkirakan antara Rp 20 sampai Rp 30 T. Tenor obligasi korporasi di Indonesia rata-rata antara 4-5 tahun. Menurut data yang tersedia sampai sekarang terdapat obligasi yang gagal bayar senilai Rp 3,96T. Jumlah ini dalam konteks permasalahan keuangan di Indonesia memang relatif tidak besar.
Mengapa kita tidak boleh menganggap sepele masalah gagal bayar ini? Ada dua hal yang ingin saya singgung di sini. Pertama, pada waktu perbankan masih dalam tahapan penyehatan kembali, dimana penyediaan kredit perbankan masih tersendat-sendat, penggunaan obligasi bagi pembiayaan investasi dan produksi bagi korporasi menjadi lebih popular. Di satu pihak ini merupakan suatu perkembangan bagus bagi pembiayaan kegiatan perusahaan. Akan tetapi di lain pihak ini juga perlu diwaspadai mengenai implikasinya. Kedua, kenyataan bahwa ada obligasi yang gagal bayar, artinya korporasi yang mengeluarkannya gagal mengembalikan jumlah dana yang harus dibayarnya pada waktu jatuh tempo tentu merupakan signal yang perlu memperoleh perhatian.
Yang harus dicermati di dalam masalah ini adalah; apakah ini merupakan suatu kejadian yang berdiri sendiri atau merupakan tanda-tanda adanya kecenderungan bagi banyak korporasi yang menghadapi masalah serupa. Apakah ini suatu kasus saja atau ada gejala akan menjadi masalah sistemik. Gagal bayar obligasi yang jatuh tempo serupa dengan suatu kredit macet dalam pinjaman perbankan. Kredit bermasalah atau macet bagi perbankan merupakan suatu yang wajar sampai batas-batas tertentu. Akan tetapi, kalau ini merupakan masalah yang menyangkut banyak pelaku, menjadi suatu distress atau bahkan krisis, maka kita bersama telah melihat dan ikut merasakan dampak negatifnya. Ini yang perlu diwaspadai.
III
Mengapa pembiayaan investasi dan kegiatan korporasi melalui obligasi merupakan perkembangan yang bagus? Sebagaimana diketahui, penjualan obligasi oleh korporasi sebagai emiten, salah satu bentuk sekuritisasi, merupakan cara pembiayaan yang langsung dari pemilik dana sebagai pembeli kepada yang memerlukan dana sebagai penjual. Karena penjualan ini langsung dari pihak yang mempunyai dana lebih kepada pihak yang memerlukan dana, maka sebagai teknik pembiayaan penggunaan obligasi lebih langsung dari pada pembiayaan melalui bank, jadi akan lebih efisien. Bagi korporasi yang mengeluarkan obligasi ini merupakan cara yang lebih murah dibandingkan dengan biaya meminjam dari bank. Sedangkan bagi pemilik dana, investasi melalui pembelian obligasi menjanjikan imbalan dan likuiditas yang lebih tinggi (karena bisa dijual sebelum jatuh tempo) dibandingkan dengan berbagai bentuk investasi dana di bank.
Di Indonesia sebagaimana di berbagai perekonomian lain di Asia, sejak akhir delapan puluhan sering dikemukakan bahwa lahan bagi perkembangan pasar obligasi atau bond ini masih sangat besar. Pada umumnya negara-negara di Asia mempunyai tingkat tabungan di masyarakat yang tinggi tetapi penggunaan obliasi masih rendah. Dalam kurun waktu 1990-1999 jumlah nilai obligasi korporasi pada kebanyakan negara Asia, kecuali Korea Selatan dan Malaysia kurang dari 5% dari PDB masing-masing. Di Korea angka ini mencapai 16% sedangkan Malaysia 11%. Akan tetapi semua ini kecil dibandingkan dengan di negara maju seperti AS, di mana jumlah penerbitan obligasi korporasi mendekati 40% dari GDP. (Sayuri Shirai, Overview of Financial Market Structures in Asia, ADB Institute Research Paper 25, September 4, 2001)
Sebagai sumber pembiayaan bagi korporasi obligasi juga masih relatif kecil. Karena itu secara potensial maka sumber ini masih belum dimanfaatkan oleh korporasi. Pembiayaan lain melalui pasar modal meskipun sudah mulai berkembang sejak medio tahun delapan puluhan juga belum sebesar di negara-negara mau. Kegiatan korporasi termasuk investasi lebih banyak dibiayai melalui pinjaman perbankan.
Dengan demikian sebagai sumber dana pembiayaan kegiatan korporasi obligasi merupakan potensi yang masih belum optimal dimanfaatkan. Selain itu semenjak krisis perbankan mengalami banyak masalah dan pembenahannya masih belum selesai sampai sekarang. Ini pula yang menyebabkan pengembangan penggunaan obligasi sebagai sumber pembiayaan masih berpeluang besar. Di kalangan negara-negara Asean juga sedang dikembangkan pasar obligasi ini.
Akan tetapi kalau dilihat perkembangan beberapa tahun terakhir upaya menggalakkan pasar obligasi korporasi di Indonesia belum berjalan seperti diharapkan. Pasar obligasi sekunder belum marak, kebanyakan obligasi hanya ditahan saja oleh pembeli pertamanya sampai jatuh tempo. Padahal aspek menarik dari pembiayaan melalui obligasi adalah perkembangan dari pasar sekunder, di mana pelaku pasar dapat memperoleh keuntungan dari jual beli intrumen hutang ini. Bagi investor juah beli intrumen hutang sebelum jatuh tempo ini juga meningkatkan likuiditas, karena itu menjajikan remunerasi (return) yang lebih menarik dari pada deposito atau tabungan di bank. Di sini juga kelihatan dominasi dari sektor perbankan, di mana pembeli obligasi justru paling besar (sekitar 67%) dilakukan oleh sektor perbankan.
IV
Mengapa perlu diwaspadai? Mengamati apa yang nampak dalam perekonomian nasional dalam menghadapi krisis dan penanganannya Indonesia, meskipun telah mendemonstrasikan berbagai hasil positif belum dapat dikatakan telah keluar dari lingkungan krisis. Berbagai perkembangan juga menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia belum belajar dari krisis. Meskipun istilah muddling through sudah mulai menjauh, tetapi perkembangan menunjukkan bahwa berbagai hasil yang dicapai masih labil. Contoh terakhir adalah perkembangan kurs rupiah akhir-akhir ini yang melemah pada waktu berbagai perkiraan mengenai outlook perekonomian negara-negara lain justru nampak membaik.
Dalam pada itu perlu diingat bahwa perkembangan yang terjadi pada waktu krisis yang mulai berkecamuk pertengahan tahun 1997 bukan suatu yang berdiri sendiri, tetapi merupakan kelanjutan ataupun implikasi dari perkembangan sebelumnya. Kemudian perkembangan setelah itu juga merupakan kelanjutan dari krisis yang terjadi.
Berbagai studi ataupun tulisan menunjukkan bahwa perkembangan perbankan di Indonesia dari segi meningkatnya jumlah bank (dari 124 tahun 1988 menjadi 234 tahun 1993), maupun peningkatan mobilisasi dana dan besarnya asset perbankan yang luar biasa tahun sembilan puluhan, didahului dengan liberalisasi periode sebelumnya, terutama Pakto 1988. Perkembangan kredit perbankan yang luar biasa terjadi, selain terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi juga karena liberalisasi perbankan yang sangat mendorong peningkatan kredit perbankan melalui penurunan giro wajib minimum dari 15% menjadi 2 % tanpa kewajiban menyimpan dana di Bank Indonesia serta cara penghitungannya yang mendorong peningkatan kredit perbankan. Semua ini telah menimbulkan terjadinya penggelembungan kredit perbankan (bubble) yang kemudian pecah (burst) dalam krisis perbankan setelah diawali dengan gejolak keuangan.
Dengan krisis yang terjadi perbankan mengalami pukulan sangat berat. Bahkan setelah dilakukan restrukturisasi yang menyeluruh termasuk penutupan bank tidak solvable, pemberian bantuan likuiditas, penggabungan (merger), penerapan program penjaminan dan rekapitalisasi, kehidupan sektor perbankan masih di bawah normal. Kredit perbankan yang diharapkan mendorong kehidupan ekonomi yang mengalami kemunduran sangat tersendat jalannya.
Dalam pada itu kegiatan ekonomi, baik konsumsi, perdagangan, ekspor-impor maupun produksi dan investasi menderita kelesuan dan sangat mengharapkan tersedianya sumber pembiayaan. Di sini peran dari obligasi korporasi sebenarnya sangat diharapkan, baik mengganti ataupun menyertai kredit perbankan dan pembiayaan melalui pasar modal.
Sebagaimana diketahui, sejak terjadinya krisis perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia, seperti juga dengan ekonomi negara-negara lain di Asia, sangat menggantungkan pada kekuatan pengeluaran konsumsi, terutama karena lemahnya pasar dunia yang menghalangi perkembangan ekspor.
Dalam pada itu pembiayaan kegiatan konsumsi semakin marak terjadi di perekonomian negara-negara Asia. Dari Korea Selatan, RRC, Thailand dan negara-negara lain laporan bank-bank yang melayani kegiatan konsumsi semakin marak. Penggunaan uang plastik atau kartu kredit meningkat luar biasa di kebanyakan negara-negara Asia, justru setelah krisis Asia. Kebijakan yang dianut berbagai negara juga mendorong terjadinya hal ini; misalnya di Thailand ada kredit konsumsi tanpa suku bunga, di Singapore kredit pembelian mobil dijereng dengan jangka waktu yang lebih panjang dengan tambahan insentif dihilangkannya kewajiban setoran awal (down payment).
Bersamaan dengan ini kita juga membaca laporan dari negara-negara tersebut tentang meningkatnya jumlah individu dan perusahaan yang mengalami kengakrutan, meningkatnya gagal bayar tagihan penggunaan kartu kredit dan pemalsuannya, atau penunggakan kewajiban bayar pinjaman bank. Dan dalam masalah obligasi korporasi Indonesia, seperti disebutkan di atas telah terjadi gagal bayar bersamaan dengan meningkatnya emisi obligasi sangat tinggi tahun ini.
Dalam pada itu perkembangan ekonomi dunia masih belum menentu. Perekonomian AS yang sudah dipompa luar biasa oleh kebijakan Greenspan yang dalam dua tahun terakhir menurunkan suku bunga tiga belas kali hingga suku bunga Fed rate menjadi seredah satu per sen per tahun. Ini merupakan suku bunga terendah selama empat puluh tahun, padahal masih mungkin diturunkan lagi. Kebijakan ini dilakukan ditambah dengan langkah pemotongan pajak (tax cut) pengeluaran perang Irak dan terorisme yang semuanya berdampak memompa kegiatan ekonomi AS.
Tetapi dengan berbagai perkembangan dan masalah sebelumnya perkembangan ekonomi negara adikuasa ini selain belum sangat pasti juga dihantui dengan kekhawatiran akan implikasi dari meningkatnya pembengkakan defisit kembar AS dan semakin besarnya pinjaman negara adi kuasa ini kepada negara-negara lain. Semua ini dan imbangan nilai tukar USD dengan mata uang lain mengandung bahaya tidak dapat dibiarkannya terus belangsung atau tidak sustainable. Dan semakin ditunda koreksinya akan semakin besar dampak negatifnya pada waktu koreksi harus dilakukan.
V
Dalam periode tahun 1995 – 1996, pada berbagai kesempatan seperti pertemuan di Perbanas, Masyarakat Kapital Indonesia, Asosiasi Emiten, rapat kerja bank-bank pemerintah, maupun dunia akademi saya banyak menyinggung permasalahan dan tantangan sektor keuangan-moneter nasional. Dalam berbagai kesempatan tersebut saya membahas masalah persaiangan dalam ekonomi global dan implikasinya bagi perbankan dan kebijakan moneter, termasuk perlunya diversifikasi produk perbankan, kehati-hatian dalam kredit perbankan, terutama kredit pengembangan properti dan pembiayaan perdagangan saham. Dalam bentuk yang lebih konkrit Bank Indonesia juga mengganti kebijakan yang semula saya propagandakan sebagai moral suasion menjadi intervensi seperti mengharuskan perbankan menyusun rencana kredit tahunan (RKT) serta peningkatan giro wajib minimum (GWM) bagi bank dari 2 % menjadi 5% dengan mengintroduksikan cara menghitung GWM baru dan mewajibkan bank-bank menyimpan dana pemenuhan GWM dalam giro bank-bank di BI
Saya juga mengingatkan perlunya dicermati terhadap pinjaman dalam valuta maupun tingginya rasio pinjaman terhadap modal pada korporasi serta arti pentingnya pembiayaan yang dipikul sendiri oleh korporasi untuk menurunkan rasio pinjaman terhadap modal. Semua ini dimakksudkan untuk meningkatkan kehati-hatian menghadapi ketidak pastian yang meningkat bersamaan dengan proses globalisasi.
Akan tetapi kita tahu, semua tadi tidak ada gunanya karena hampir tidak ada yang memperhatikan. Sekarang saya hanya bisa menunjukkan disket saya yang memuat file dari makalah atau pointers dan teks sambutan dalam acara-acara tersebut. Sekarang hanya bisa disebutkan bahwa pengalaman menunjukkan bahwa peringatan untuk meningkatkan kehati-hatian pada waktu kondisi perekonomian sedang bagus itu memang tidak ada gunanya. Baru setelah disadari betapa dahsyatnya dampak dari krisis maka ada yang mulai memperhatikan, meskipun nampaknya kita juga belum belajar dari krisis tersebut. Tetapi peringatan setelah terjadinya krisis selain tidak simpatik dan tanpa guna, juga menghadapi kemungkinan timbulnya tuduhan pembenaran diri.
Dewasa ini sebagai suatu potensi, pasar modal dan pasar obligasi masih besar, dan dari segi pengembangan deversifikasi sektor keuangan hal ini perlu digalakkan. Akan tetapi kenyataan bahwa telah ada kasus-kasus gagal bayar dan meningkatnya penggunaan tidak sah dan pemalsuan kartu kredit serta apa yang dikenal sebagai cyber terrorism dan money laundering, saya pelaku pasar maupun otorita pengawasan sudah harus memperlakukannya sebagai lampu kuning yang mendekati merah. Jangan sampai terjadi kelambatan bertindak sehingga nanti hanya bisa mengatakan nasi telah menjadi bubur karena terjadi krisis keuangan kedua, bahkan sebelum pemulihan seluruhnya rampung.
Kita melihat betapa dahsyatnya dampak dari krisis pasar uang yang kemudian menjadi krisis multi dimensi dan kita melihat bahwa korban paling besar adalah pada anggota masyarakat yang tidak mampu alias melarat. Peringatan dan langkah yang saya lakukan pada waktu saya masih menjabat sebelum krisis terjadi hanya seperti apa yang dilakukan Don Quixote dalam cerita Cervantes. Mudah-mudahan kali ini bukan merupakan pengulangan cerita lama.
English Version :
Prepare written about the need for circumspection in the financial world to contain my fear. For those who have become actors from the Monetary Authority of banking supervision and my position, at least according to many, very weak to talk about the topic. As there are implications fear that the warning raised here will not noted. But the more I fear the risk is to see my invitation to meet Trust editor to write column discusses the need for prudential financial sector actors, including Authority control problems associated with corporate bonds bonds, especially with the case have failed to pay corporate bonds is almost Rp 4 T recently.
Perhaps for this problem while people are considered inconsequential and therefore do not need to be considered. It is true that the bonds as intrumen mobilization of funds for the corporation in Indonesia have not been too popular. As a developing country laian corporate financing activities in Indonesia are still very didominir banking. Financing activities through corporate bonds in Indonesia between 1990-1999 as a good percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) and as a percentage of external financing for the corporation only about two percent only.
These conditions of Indonesian banks have not been recovered, is still experiencing pain and suffering as a result of the crisis that has been running several years. Indonesia is still experiencing problems not providing credit recovery for corporate banking. In this aspect financing through corporate bonds on an alternative that is still open.
II
But why be skeptical? Thus because the amount is not too large, mumpung not too late to be seen what are the aspects that need to be skeptical of penggunaaan this instrument as a source of corporate financing. Mumpung still not great, if there is something wrong should be first, to avoid the turmoil in the financial market instruments and bonds markets later developed into healthy alternative financing for the corporation.
Corporate bonds before the crisis is still very small number of visible gradually become a big increase. According to the available data, the average per year corporate bonds in Indonesia since 1997 did not reach Rp.3 T, except 1998. But in 2002, an increase in corporate bond issuance to Rp 6.44 T. For this year, in the first semester, only the amount of corporate bonds have reached Rp 13.08 Q, while for the whole year is estimated to be between Rp 20 to Rp 30 T. Tenures of corporate bonds in the U.S. average between 4-5 years. According to data available up to now, there are bonds that failed to pay Rp 3.96 T. This amount is in the context of financial problems in Indonesia is relatively large.
Why we can not be considered trivial issues failed to pay this? There are two things that I ingn polecat here. First, at the time the bank is still in the phase of Health again, where the provision of bank loans still-stagnant stagnating, the use of bond financing for investment and production for the corporation to become more popular. On the one hand, this is a good development for the company's financing activities. However, on the other hand, this should also skeptical about the implications. Second, the fact that there are bonds that failed to pay, meaning that removing the corporation failed to recover the amount of funds that must dibayarnya at the time of maturity is a signal that needs to get attention.
must be seen in this problem is; whether this is an event that stands alone or is a sign of the tendency for many corporations that face similar problems. Is this a case of no symptoms or only to be systemic problems. Failed to pay maturing bonds with a similar bad debts in the banking loans. Credit problematic or jammed the bank for a reasonable up to certain limits. However, if this is a problem that concerns many actors, a distress or even a crisis, then we together have look and feel involved in negative impact. This is a necessary skeptical.
III
Why financing and investment activities through corporate bonds is a good development? As is known, the sale of bonds by the corporation as emiten, one of the sekuritisasi, is a way of financing the fund directly from the owner as a buyer to the seller as the need of funds. Because of this direct sales from parties who have more funds to the parties that need funds, as the use of the technique financing bonds more directly from the financing through banks, it will be more efficient. For the corporation to issue bonds this way, which is cheaper than the cost of borrowing from banks. Meanwhile, the owner of the funds, investment through the purchase of bonds promising benefits and higher liquidity (due to be sold before maturity) compared with other forms of investment funds in the bank.
In Indonesia, as in many other economies in Asia, since late eighties often raised that the land for the development of the bond market or the bond is still very large. In general, countries in Asia have the level of savings in the use of obliasi high but still low. In the period 1990-1999 total value of corporate bonds in most Asian countries, except South Korea and Malaysia, less than 5% of GDP respectively. In Korea, this figure reached 16%, while Malaysia's 11%. However, all these small in comparison with developed countries like the U.S., where the number of corporate bonds approached 40% of GDP. (Sayuri Shirai, Overview of the Financial Market Structures in Asia, the ADB Institute Research Paper 25, September 4, 2001)
As a source of financing for corporate bonds are still relatively small. Therefore, the potential sources is still not used by the corporation. Other financing through capital markets, although already started developing the eight years since Medio is also not as dozens of countries would like. Corporate activities, including more investment is financed through loans from banks.
Thus, as a source of funds financing activities corporate bonds is the potential that is still not optimally utilized. In addition, since the banking crisis experienced many problems and pembenahannya still not finished until now. This is also the cause of the use of bonds as a source of financing is still potentially large. Among Asean countries are also being developed bond market this.
However, if the views of the past few years, efforts to promote the corporate bond market in Indonesia has not run as expected. Secondary market for bonds has not been rampant, most bonds are held only by the buyer until the first maturity. The interesting aspects of the financing through bonds is the development of the secondary market, where the market can gain from the sale to buy intrumen this debt. Juah for investors to buy intrumen debt before maturity will also increase the liquidity, because it menjajikan remuneration (return) is more interesting from the deposit or savings in the bank. Here also seem domination of the banking sector, where bond buyers had most (about 67%) by the banking sector.
IV
Why need to be skeptical? Observe what is visible in the national economy in the face of the crisis and its handling of Indonesia, although it has its various positive results can not be said to have been out of the environmental crisis. Various development also indicates that Indonesia has not learned from the crisis. Although the term muddling through has already started, but the development shows that the various outcomes is still unstable. Examples are the latest developments of rupiah exchange rate recently weakened at the time of the various estimates about the economic outlook other countries had visible afterwards.
The need to remember that the development that occurred during the crisis that began berkecamuk mid-1997 that is not a stand-alone, but it is a continuation or implications from the previous development. Then after that development is also a continuation of the crisis that occurred.
Various studies indicate that the writing or the development of banking in Indonesia in terms of increasing the number of the bank (of 124 in 1988 to be 234 in 1993), and increased mobilization of funds and the amount of bank assets outside the ordinary nineties, with the liberalization preceded the previous period, mainly Pakto 1988 . The development of banking credit, which occurred outside the ordinary, other than related to the economic growth is also due to liberalization of banking that is very encouraging increase in bank loans through a decrease in giro mandatory minimum of 15% to 2% without the obligation to save funds in Bank Indonesia and penghitungannya ways that encourage increased bank loans. All this has lead to inflate the occurrence of banking credit (Bubble), which is then broken (burst) after the banking crisis in the beginning with the financial turmoil.
With the banking crisis that occurred to very heavy wallop. Even after a thorough restructuring, including closing the bank is not solvable, the provision of liquidity assistance, merger (merger), and guarantee the implementation of the recapitalization program, the banking sector are still below normal. Bank credit that is expected to encourage economic life have backdown, which is clogged the road.
The economic activities, both consumption, trade, export-import and production and investment suffered a decline and that the very availability of financing sources. Here, the role of corporate bonds are expected to either replace or accompany the banking and credit financing via the capital market.
As is known, since the economic crisis of Indonesia, as the economy other countries in Asia, is rely on the strength of consumption expenditure, mainly because of weak world markets, which hinder the development of exports.
The financing activities increasingly rampant consumption occurred in the economy of Asian countries. From South Korea, Republic of China, Thailand and other countries report that banks serve the increasingly rampant activities of consumption. The use of plastic money or credit cards increased in the most extraordinary countries in Asia, precisely after the Asian crisis. Policies of the various countries also encourage this; for example, in Thailand there is a consumption credit without interest, at the Singapore credit dijereng purchase of a car with the longer-term with additional incentives dihilangkannya initial deposit obligations (down payment).
Along with this we also read the reports from these countries about the increasing number of individuals and companies that have kengakrutan, failed to pay the increased use of credit card bills and pemalsuannya, or delinquent obligations to pay bank loans. And corporate bond issues in Indonesia, as mentioned above has failed to pay the same occurred with increasing emissions of bonds is very high this year.
The development of the world economy is still not stabilized. The U.S. economy has been pumped extraordinary policy by Greenspan in the last two years of lower interest rates thirteen times to Fed interest rate to be seredah one per cent per year. This is the lowest interest rates for forty years, while still may be lowered again. This policy is carried out by the tax-cutting measures (tax cut) Iraq war spending and terrorism which affects all U.S. economic activity pumping.
But with the various development issues and previous economic development adikuasa this country apart is certainly not also be a concern with the implications of increased swelling U.S. twin deficits and increasing the amount of loans the country is to precious power of other countries. All this and equilibrium exchange rates with the USD currency other hazards can not contain dibiarkannya continue belangsung or not sustainable. And the delayed koreksinya will be greater negative impact on the corrections must be made.
V
In the year 1995 - 1996, on various opportunities such as meeting in Perbanas, Community Capital Indonesia, the Association Emiten, working meetings banks the government, colleges and the world I offend many problems and challenges of the financial sector, the national monetary. In many of the chance to discuss my problems persaiangan in the global economy and their implications for the banking and monetary policy, including the need for diversification of banking products, prudential credit in the banking, property development, particularly credit and trade finance shares. In a more concrete form of Bank Indonesia also change the policy, which I propagandakan as a moral suasion require intervention such as banks prepare annual credit plan (RKT) and increasing Minimum Reserve Requirements (MRR) for banks from 2% to 5% by mengintroduksikan how to calculate the GWM new and require banks to save funds in the fulfillment of GWM giro banks on BI
I also need to be reminded of the loans in the currency and high ratio of loans to capital on the meaning and importance of corporate image, self-financing by the corporation to reduce the ratio of loans to capital. All this dimakksudkan to improve prudential face the uncertainties of increased simultaneously with the process of globalization.
However, we know, all was not no use because there are almost no attention. Now I can only show my diskette containing the files of paper or text pointers and welcome in these events. It can only be mentioned that the experience shows that the warning to improve prudential at the time the economic conditions are good that it is not useful. Just after we realize how dahsyatnya impact of the crisis that began to pay attention, although it appears we have learned from the crisis. But the warning after the crisis was not sympathetic, and without order, also face the possibility of the emergence of the alleged self-justification.
At this as a potential, capital market and bond market is still large, and in terms of financial sector development deversifikasi this should be encouraged. However, the fact that there have been cases and failed to pay the increased use of unauthorized and fraudulent credit card and what is known as cyber terrorism and money laundering, market actors and I Authority supervision memperlakukannya be as light yellow near the red. Do not delay acting until there is only so can the rice porridge has been a financial crisis because of both, even before all the recovery is finished.
See the dahsyatnya how we impact of the crisis the money market and become a multi-dimensional crisis, and we see that most of the victims are members of the community who can not afford protracted alias. Warning and the steps that I do in the time I was served before a crisis occurs just as what Don Quixote in Cervantes story. Hopefully this is not a rehash old stories.
Ditulis oleh J. Soedradjad, Senin, 04 Agustus 2003
(http://kolom.pacific.net.id/ind/soedradjad/artikel_j_soedradjad_djiwandono/kehati-hatian_itu_perlu.html)
English Version :
Prepare written about the need for circumspection in the financial world to contain my fear. For those who have become actors from the Monetary Authority of banking supervision and my position, at least according to many, very weak to talk about the topic. As there are implications fear that the warning raised here will not noted. But the more I fear the risk is to see my invitation to meet Trust editor to write column discusses the need for prudential financial sector actors, including Authority control problems associated with corporate bonds bonds, especially with the case have failed to pay corporate bonds is almost Rp 4 T recently.
Perhaps for this problem while people are considered inconsequential and therefore do not need to be considered. It is true that the bonds as intrumen mobilization of funds for the corporation in Indonesia have not been too popular. As a developing country laian corporate financing activities in Indonesia are still very didominir banking. Financing activities through corporate bonds in Indonesia between 1990-1999 as a good percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) and as a percentage of external financing for the corporation only about two percent only.
These conditions of Indonesian banks have not been recovered, is still experiencing pain and suffering as a result of the crisis that has been running several years. Indonesia is still experiencing problems not providing credit recovery for corporate banking. In this aspect financing through corporate bonds on an alternative that is still open.
II
But why be skeptical? Thus because the amount is not too large, mumpung not too late to be seen what are the aspects that need to be skeptical of penggunaaan this instrument as a source of corporate financing. Mumpung still not great, if there is something wrong should be first, to avoid the turmoil in the financial market instruments and bonds markets later developed into healthy alternative financing for the corporation.
Corporate bonds before the crisis is still very small number of visible gradually become a big increase. According to the available data, the average per year corporate bonds in Indonesia since 1997 did not reach Rp.3 T, except 1998. But in 2002, an increase in corporate bond issuance to Rp 6.44 T. For this year, in the first semester, only the amount of corporate bonds have reached Rp 13.08 Q, while for the whole year is estimated to be between Rp 20 to Rp 30 T. Tenures of corporate bonds in the U.S. average between 4-5 years. According to data available up to now, there are bonds that failed to pay Rp 3.96 T. This amount is in the context of financial problems in Indonesia is relatively large.
Why we can not be considered trivial issues failed to pay this? There are two things that I ingn polecat here. First, at the time the bank is still in the phase of Health again, where the provision of bank loans still-stagnant stagnating, the use of bond financing for investment and production for the corporation to become more popular. On the one hand, this is a good development for the company's financing activities. However, on the other hand, this should also skeptical about the implications. Second, the fact that there are bonds that failed to pay, meaning that removing the corporation failed to recover the amount of funds that must dibayarnya at the time of maturity is a signal that needs to get attention.
must be seen in this problem is; whether this is an event that stands alone or is a sign of the tendency for many corporations that face similar problems. Is this a case of no symptoms or only to be systemic problems. Failed to pay maturing bonds with a similar bad debts in the banking loans. Credit problematic or jammed the bank for a reasonable up to certain limits. However, if this is a problem that concerns many actors, a distress or even a crisis, then we together have look and feel involved in negative impact. This is a necessary skeptical.
III
Why financing and investment activities through corporate bonds is a good development? As is known, the sale of bonds by the corporation as emiten, one of the sekuritisasi, is a way of financing the fund directly from the owner as a buyer to the seller as the need of funds. Because of this direct sales from parties who have more funds to the parties that need funds, as the use of the technique financing bonds more directly from the financing through banks, it will be more efficient. For the corporation to issue bonds this way, which is cheaper than the cost of borrowing from banks. Meanwhile, the owner of the funds, investment through the purchase of bonds promising benefits and higher liquidity (due to be sold before maturity) compared with other forms of investment funds in the bank.
In Indonesia, as in many other economies in Asia, since late eighties often raised that the land for the development of the bond market or the bond is still very large. In general, countries in Asia have the level of savings in the use of obliasi high but still low. In the period 1990-1999 total value of corporate bonds in most Asian countries, except South Korea and Malaysia, less than 5% of GDP respectively. In Korea, this figure reached 16%, while Malaysia's 11%. However, all these small in comparison with developed countries like the U.S., where the number of corporate bonds approached 40% of GDP. (Sayuri Shirai, Overview of the Financial Market Structures in Asia, the ADB Institute Research Paper 25, September 4, 2001)
As a source of financing for corporate bonds are still relatively small. Therefore, the potential sources is still not used by the corporation. Other financing through capital markets, although already started developing the eight years since Medio is also not as dozens of countries would like. Corporate activities, including more investment is financed through loans from banks.
Thus, as a source of funds financing activities corporate bonds is the potential that is still not optimally utilized. In addition, since the banking crisis experienced many problems and pembenahannya still not finished until now. This is also the cause of the use of bonds as a source of financing is still potentially large. Among Asean countries are also being developed bond market this.
However, if the views of the past few years, efforts to promote the corporate bond market in Indonesia has not run as expected. Secondary market for bonds has not been rampant, most bonds are held only by the buyer until the first maturity. The interesting aspects of the financing through bonds is the development of the secondary market, where the market can gain from the sale to buy intrumen this debt. Juah for investors to buy intrumen debt before maturity will also increase the liquidity, because it menjajikan remuneration (return) is more interesting from the deposit or savings in the bank. Here also seem domination of the banking sector, where bond buyers had most (about 67%) by the banking sector.
IV
Why need to be skeptical? Observe what is visible in the national economy in the face of the crisis and its handling of Indonesia, although it has its various positive results can not be said to have been out of the environmental crisis. Various development also indicates that Indonesia has not learned from the crisis. Although the term muddling through has already started, but the development shows that the various outcomes is still unstable. Examples are the latest developments of rupiah exchange rate recently weakened at the time of the various estimates about the economic outlook other countries had visible afterwards.
The need to remember that the development that occurred during the crisis that began berkecamuk mid-1997 that is not a stand-alone, but it is a continuation or implications from the previous development. Then after that development is also a continuation of the crisis that occurred.
Various studies indicate that the writing or the development of banking in Indonesia in terms of increasing the number of the bank (of 124 in 1988 to be 234 in 1993), and increased mobilization of funds and the amount of bank assets outside the ordinary nineties, with the liberalization preceded the previous period, mainly Pakto 1988 . The development of banking credit, which occurred outside the ordinary, other than related to the economic growth is also due to liberalization of banking that is very encouraging increase in bank loans through a decrease in giro mandatory minimum of 15% to 2% without the obligation to save funds in Bank Indonesia and penghitungannya ways that encourage increased bank loans. All this has lead to inflate the occurrence of banking credit (Bubble), which is then broken (burst) after the banking crisis in the beginning with the financial turmoil.
With the banking crisis that occurred to very heavy wallop. Even after a thorough restructuring, including closing the bank is not solvable, the provision of liquidity assistance, merger (merger), and guarantee the implementation of the recapitalization program, the banking sector are still below normal. Bank credit that is expected to encourage economic life have backdown, which is clogged the road.
The economic activities, both consumption, trade, export-import and production and investment suffered a decline and that the very availability of financing sources. Here, the role of corporate bonds are expected to either replace or accompany the banking and credit financing via the capital market.
As is known, since the economic crisis of Indonesia, as the economy other countries in Asia, is rely on the strength of consumption expenditure, mainly because of weak world markets, which hinder the development of exports.
The financing activities increasingly rampant consumption occurred in the economy of Asian countries. From South Korea, Republic of China, Thailand and other countries report that banks serve the increasingly rampant activities of consumption. The use of plastic money or credit cards increased in the most extraordinary countries in Asia, precisely after the Asian crisis. Policies of the various countries also encourage this; for example, in Thailand there is a consumption credit without interest, at the Singapore credit dijereng purchase of a car with the longer-term with additional incentives dihilangkannya initial deposit obligations (down payment).
Along with this we also read the reports from these countries about the increasing number of individuals and companies that have kengakrutan, failed to pay the increased use of credit card bills and pemalsuannya, or delinquent obligations to pay bank loans. And corporate bond issues in Indonesia, as mentioned above has failed to pay the same occurred with increasing emissions of bonds is very high this year.
The development of the world economy is still not stabilized. The U.S. economy has been pumped extraordinary policy by Greenspan in the last two years of lower interest rates thirteen times to Fed interest rate to be seredah one per cent per year. This is the lowest interest rates for forty years, while still may be lowered again. This policy is carried out by the tax-cutting measures (tax cut) Iraq war spending and terrorism which affects all U.S. economic activity pumping.
But with the various development issues and previous economic development adikuasa this country apart is certainly not also be a concern with the implications of increased swelling U.S. twin deficits and increasing the amount of loans the country is to precious power of other countries. All this and equilibrium exchange rates with the USD currency other hazards can not contain dibiarkannya continue belangsung or not sustainable. And the delayed koreksinya will be greater negative impact on the corrections must be made.
V
In the year 1995 - 1996, on various opportunities such as meeting in Perbanas, Community Capital Indonesia, the Association Emiten, working meetings banks the government, colleges and the world I offend many problems and challenges of the financial sector, the national monetary. In many of the chance to discuss my problems persaiangan in the global economy and their implications for the banking and monetary policy, including the need for diversification of banking products, prudential credit in the banking, property development, particularly credit and trade finance shares. In a more concrete form of Bank Indonesia also change the policy, which I propagandakan as a moral suasion require intervention such as banks prepare annual credit plan (RKT) and increasing Minimum Reserve Requirements (MRR) for banks from 2% to 5% by mengintroduksikan how to calculate the GWM new and require banks to save funds in the fulfillment of GWM giro banks on BI
I also need to be reminded of the loans in the currency and high ratio of loans to capital on the meaning and importance of corporate image, self-financing by the corporation to reduce the ratio of loans to capital. All this dimakksudkan to improve prudential face the uncertainties of increased simultaneously with the process of globalization.
However, we know, all was not no use because there are almost no attention. Now I can only show my diskette containing the files of paper or text pointers and welcome in these events. It can only be mentioned that the experience shows that the warning to improve prudential at the time the economic conditions are good that it is not useful. Just after we realize how dahsyatnya impact of the crisis that began to pay attention, although it appears we have learned from the crisis. But the warning after the crisis was not sympathetic, and without order, also face the possibility of the emergence of the alleged self-justification.
At this as a potential, capital market and bond market is still large, and in terms of financial sector development deversifikasi this should be encouraged. However, the fact that there have been cases and failed to pay the increased use of unauthorized and fraudulent credit card and what is known as cyber terrorism and money laundering, market actors and I Authority supervision memperlakukannya be as light yellow near the red. Do not delay acting until there is only so can the rice porridge has been a financial crisis because of both, even before all the recovery is finished.
See the dahsyatnya how we impact of the crisis the money market and become a multi-dimensional crisis, and we see that most of the victims are members of the community who can not afford protracted alias. Warning and the steps that I do in the time I was served before a crisis occurs just as what Don Quixote in Cervantes story. Hopefully this is not a rehash old stories.
Ditulis oleh J. Soedradjad, Senin, 04 Agustus 2003
(http://kolom.pacific.net.id/ind/soedradjad/artikel_j_soedradjad_djiwandono/kehati-hatian_itu_perlu.html)
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